Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.1275.807
205.2684.129
304.1913.284
403.4072.639
502.8432.169
602.3471.743
701.9301.409
801.5191.089
901.0740.739

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.94813.401
211.98210.309
310.7769.284
410.0908.524
59.2977.979
68.7387.305
78.2156.857
87.7626.456
97.4376.078
107.1275.807
116.8805.589
126.6795.357
136.4305.185
146.2505.014
156.0404.833
165.8604.694
175.6544.532
185.5024.372
195.3714.235
205.2684.129
215.1354.029
225.0193.914
234.8963.841
244.7583.730
254.6443.663
264.5333.606
274.4453.517
284.3493.447
294.2683.371
304.1913.284
314.1013.208
324.0233.129
333.9343.068
343.8643.012
353.7992.930
363.7252.868
373.6502.805
383.5652.748
393.4732.700
403.4072.639
413.3512.580
423.2772.537
433.2272.500
443.1732.452
453.1172.408
463.0572.358
472.9972.315
482.9382.258
492.8922.214
502.8432.169
512.7872.127
522.7362.087
532.6852.037
542.6321.993
552.5831.945
562.5331.892
572.4781.859
582.4411.826
592.3901.791
602.3471.743
612.3051.698
622.2671.665
632.2111.634
642.1771.597
652.1331.567
662.0971.537
672.0581.509
682.0081.473
691.9721.436
701.9301.409
711.8961.373
721.8551.344
731.8131.310
741.7661.280
751.7291.247
761.6871.217
771.6451.185
781.5961.155
791.5611.126
801.5191.089
811.4811.054
821.4331.020
831.3870.983
841.3400.951
851.3000.924
861.2580.886
871.2150.848
881.1690.817
891.1200.780
901.0740.739
911.0080.700
920.9580.654
930.8960.604
940.8470.543
950.7870.499
960.7120.447
970.5980.370
980.4990.301
990.3890.217


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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