Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge



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Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.763
2023.802
3017.547
4012.924
509.782
607.187
705.337
803.769
902.307

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.865
260.557
355.799
451.928
549.092
645.197
742.500
840.014
937.571
1035.763
1134.282
1232.668
1331.459
1430.263
1528.965
1627.949
1726.778
1825.606
1924.590
2023.802
2123.051
2222.227
2321.658
2420.841
2520.337
2619.907
2719.261
2818.755
2918.175
3017.547
3116.983
3216.419
3315.981
3415.555
3514.980
3614.529
3714.086
3813.679
3913.350
4012.924
4112.519
4212.223
4311.977
4411.643
4511.348
4611.022
4710.730
4810.356
4910.078
509.782
519.517
529.256
538.955
548.673
558.391
568.056
577.862
587.668
597.458
607.187
616.922
626.731
636.556
646.344
656.181
666.017
675.866
685.672
695.476
705.337
715.149
725.001
734.830
744.680
754.515
764.371
774.215
784.074
793.941
803.769
813.610
823.462
833.296
843.160
853.044
862.890
872.734
882.611
892.466
902.307
912.163
921.996
931.823
941.618
951.475
961.315
971.090
980.904
990.696


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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