Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge



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Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.333
2020.629
3015.141
4011.258
508.656
606.501
704.944
803.596
902.298

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
180.351
262.766
356.328
451.278
547.694
642.947
739.783
836.958
934.268
1032.333
1130.781
1229.125
1327.908
1426.723
1525.458
1624.483
1723.375
1822.281
1921.347
2020.629
2119.951
2219.214
2318.709
2417.989
2517.547
2617.172
2716.612
2816.175
2915.677
3015.141
3114.661
3214.183
3313.813
3413.455
3512.973
3612.595
3712.225
3811.886
3911.612
4011.258
4110.922
4210.677
4310.473
4410.197
459.952
469.682
479.441
489.132
498.902
508.656
518.437
528.221
537.972
547.738
557.504
567.226
577.064
586.903
596.728
606.501
616.280
626.120
635.973
645.795
655.658
665.520
675.393
685.228
695.062
704.944
714.784
724.658
734.512
744.383
754.242
764.117
773.983
783.861
793.745
803.596
813.457
823.327
833.181
843.061
852.958
862.821
872.682
882.572
892.441
902.298
912.166
922.013
931.853
941.663
951.529
961.377
971.160
980.978
990.771


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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