Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Probability distribution for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.7931.061
Median1.2811.747
Mean1.5752.318
75% Quartile2.0242.885
Interquartile Range1.2311.824

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.21310.685
24.8678.161
34.3217.333
43.9966.721
53.6856.284
63.4725.745
73.3335.389
83.2165.071
93.0744.772
102.9494.557
112.8474.386
122.7624.204
132.6984.069
142.6253.935
152.5593.793
162.4883.685
172.4293.559
182.3623.434
192.3133.327
202.2583.246
212.2073.168
222.1633.079
232.1093.023
242.0672.937
252.0252.886
261.9872.841
271.9472.772
281.9062.719
291.8532.660
301.8182.594
311.7752.536
321.7372.475
331.7052.429
341.6732.386
351.6482.323
361.6182.276
371.5922.228
381.5672.185
391.5402.148
401.5142.102
411.4922.057
421.4702.025
431.4501.997
441.4191.960
451.3861.927
461.3651.889
471.3431.857
481.3211.814
491.2971.781
501.2811.747
511.2571.716
521.2371.685
531.2171.648
541.1971.615
551.1761.579
561.1541.539
571.1381.515
581.1191.490
591.1001.464
601.0781.428
611.0611.395
621.0461.370
631.0271.347
641.0101.319
650.9891.298
660.9661.275
670.9481.255
680.9301.228
690.9081.201
700.8891.181
710.8691.154
720.8531.133
730.8391.108
740.8181.086
750.7931.061
760.7741.040
770.7581.016
780.7440.994
790.7220.973
800.7020.946
810.6840.920
820.6660.896
830.6500.869
840.6230.846
850.6010.826
860.5770.799
870.5560.771
880.5350.749
890.5120.722
900.4880.693
910.4560.665
920.4390.632
930.4070.596
940.3800.553
950.3430.522
960.3090.485
970.2680.430
980.2030.382
990.1330.324


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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