Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Probability distribution for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.8771.762
Median3.3773.166
Mean4.6564.654
75% Quartile5.9695.710
Interquartile Range4.0923.949

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.01926.029
217.40719.178
315.27916.959
413.71115.335
512.66914.187
611.92912.785
711.12111.867
810.62011.054
910.23510.297
109.7459.759
119.3099.331
128.9268.879
138.5778.546
148.2918.218
158.0367.873
167.7467.610
177.5467.305
187.3147.005
197.0826.751
206.8596.557
216.6496.372
226.4576.163
236.3336.032
246.1655.832
255.9705.712
265.8305.609
275.7235.449
285.5895.326
295.4575.192
305.3595.040
315.2244.907
325.1014.769
334.9694.665
344.8484.568
354.7714.427
364.6644.322
374.5644.215
384.4644.119
394.3604.038
404.2713.936
414.1813.837
424.0853.767
433.9653.706
443.8833.625
453.7973.553
463.7173.472
473.6503.402
483.5543.310
493.4683.239
503.3773.166
513.2963.099
523.2103.035
533.1522.957
543.0822.887
553.0352.811
562.9732.728
572.9132.677
582.8662.626
592.7982.572
602.7412.498
612.6802.430
622.6202.380
632.5532.332
642.5012.276
652.4452.232
662.3772.187
672.3192.145
682.2602.091
692.2152.037
702.1451.997
712.0841.944
722.0361.902
731.9721.853
741.9271.809
751.8771.761
761.8301.719
771.7661.673
781.7161.631
791.6511.591
801.5971.538
811.5431.489
821.4951.443
831.4491.391
841.3931.348
851.3421.311
861.2851.261
871.2341.210
881.1401.169
891.0781.120
901.0211.066
910.9681.016
920.8960.956
930.8250.894
940.7560.818
950.6850.763
960.6010.701
970.5180.609
980.4310.530
990.2940.436


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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