Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge



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Probability distribution for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.396
Median4.865
Mean8.191
75% Quartile9.884
Interquartile Range7.489

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.970
239.245
334.541
430.981
528.524
625.358
723.301
821.500
919.815
1018.619
1117.671
1216.668
1315.937
1415.229
1514.479
1613.904
1713.254
1812.615
1912.072
2011.656
2111.265
2210.840
2310.550
2410.137
259.885
269.671
279.351
289.103
298.820
308.515
318.243
327.973
337.764
347.561
357.289
367.076
376.868
386.677
396.523
406.324
416.135
425.998
435.883
445.728
455.591
465.440
475.305
485.131
495.003
504.865
514.743
524.622
534.482
544.351
554.221
564.065
573.974
583.884
593.786
603.660
613.536
623.447
633.364
643.265
653.188
663.111
673.040
682.948
692.855
702.789
712.699
722.629
732.547
742.475
752.396
762.326
772.251
782.182
792.118
802.034
811.956
821.883
831.801
841.734
851.676
861.599
871.521
881.459
891.386
901.305
911.231
921.145
931.055
940.947
950.872
960.786
970.663
980.560
990.443


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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