Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Apr4.8593.6000.2682.33450.960
Apr-May9.2725.5030.5174.83567.065
Apr-Jun11.8197.6560.8577.23171.802

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.116
2015.942
3011.442
408.364
506.343
604.695
703.531
802.532
901.587

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
177.779
257.114
349.965
444.626
540.819
636.145
733.086
830.385
927.883
1026.116
1124.721
1223.256
1322.181
1421.132
1520.035
1619.205
1718.250
1817.318
1916.536
2015.942
2115.380
2214.749
2314.354
2413.757
2513.400
2613.096
2712.629
2812.269
2911.880
3011.442
3111.062
3210.670
3310.375
3410.103
359.711
369.419
379.124
388.861
398.642
408.364
418.100
427.911
437.749
447.536
457.347
467.133
476.952
486.712
496.531
506.343
516.175
526.012
535.816
545.643
555.454
565.250
575.127
585.002
594.871
604.695
614.531
624.412
634.300
644.169
654.066
663.962
673.867
683.743
693.619
703.531
713.412
723.318
733.209
743.113
753.009
762.916
772.817
782.727
792.642
802.532
812.430
822.335
832.228
842.140
852.065
861.966
871.865
881.784
891.690
901.587
911.492
921.382
931.268
941.132
951.037
960.930
970.778
980.651
990.508


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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