Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1988) (GL)
Jul1.8113.7254.4710.1701.29811.945
Jul-Aug2.6454.9135.4780.4512.04014.305
Jul-Sep3.3335.5286.1040.6062.62217.979

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.2526.240
204.8894.331
304.0303.403
403.4472.713
502.9102.223
602.5011.790
702.0971.459
801.7041.149
901.2760.821

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.37915.616
29.76511.684
38.89810.413
48.2289.480
57.7378.819
67.3218.007
76.9257.474
86.6567.000
96.4556.557
106.2526.240
116.0805.988
125.8715.721
135.7435.523
145.6015.328
155.4505.122
165.3404.965
175.1954.782
185.0914.601
194.9954.448
204.8894.331
214.7864.219
224.7104.092
234.6074.011
244.5153.889
254.4043.816
264.3173.753
274.2473.655
284.1713.579
294.0933.496
304.0303.403
313.9653.320
323.8983.235
333.8333.170
343.7803.109
353.7263.022
363.6792.956
373.6242.889
383.5662.828
393.5072.778
403.4472.713
413.3772.651
423.3182.606
433.2732.568
443.2102.516
453.1632.471
463.1142.419
473.0632.374
483.0212.315
492.9732.270
502.9102.223
512.8672.180
522.8162.139
532.7762.088
542.7402.043
552.6991.994
562.6561.940
572.6241.907
582.5861.874
592.5461.838
602.5011.790
612.4701.745
622.4331.712
632.3931.681
642.3441.644
652.2951.614
662.2601.585
672.2211.557
682.1801.521
692.1401.485
702.0971.459
712.0591.423
722.0171.395
731.9791.362
741.9381.333
751.8921.300
761.8501.272
771.8101.240
781.7771.212
791.7371.184
801.7041.149
811.6671.115
821.6251.084
831.5921.048
841.5431.018
851.5030.992
861.4570.958
871.4210.922
881.3740.894
891.3300.859
901.2760.821
911.2220.786
921.1490.744
931.0810.699
941.0110.645
950.9580.605
960.8670.560
970.7870.492
980.6600.433
990.5260.363


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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