Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Aug0.8341.1881.0080.2810.7420.701
Aug-Sep1.5221.8021.6330.4361.3241.424
Aug-Oct2.4292.2192.0420.4762.78311.727

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.1734.557
205.6603.246
304.6552.594
403.9442.102
503.3691.747
602.8861.428
702.4171.181
801.9480.946
901.4620.693

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.23110.685
211.2658.161
39.9887.333
49.2626.721
58.7566.284
68.3125.745
77.9325.389
87.6835.071
97.4334.772
107.1734.557
116.9474.386
126.7484.204
136.5914.069
146.4253.935
156.2663.793
166.1313.685
175.9913.559
185.8973.434
195.7713.327
205.6603.246
215.5673.168
225.4463.079
235.3163.023
245.1812.937
255.0822.886
264.9892.841
274.8982.772
284.8022.719
294.7262.660
304.6552.594
314.5692.536
324.4812.475
334.4132.429
344.3472.386
354.2682.323
364.1972.276
374.1432.228
384.0692.185
394.0172.148
403.9442.102
413.8932.057
423.8292.025
433.7681.997
443.7081.960
453.6581.927
463.6101.889
473.5421.857
483.4781.814
493.4291.781
503.3691.747
513.3221.716
523.2691.685
533.2211.648
543.1791.615
553.1271.579
563.0701.539
573.0181.515
582.9791.490
592.9291.464
602.8861.428
612.8351.395
622.7941.370
632.7591.347
642.7151.319
652.6761.298
662.6281.275
672.5751.255
682.5231.228
692.4601.201
702.4171.181
712.3631.154
722.3271.133
732.2861.108
742.2381.086
752.1901.061
762.1461.040
772.1021.016
782.0550.994
792.0010.973
801.9480.946
811.8970.920
821.8490.896
831.8080.869
841.7550.846
851.7140.826
861.6630.799
871.6190.771
881.5750.749
891.5120.722
901.4620.693
911.3990.665
921.3260.632
931.2720.596
941.1960.553
951.1270.522
961.0380.485
970.9420.430
980.8240.382
990.6580.324


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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