Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


Return to catchment list
Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Nov1.4190.3640.6450.0911.3060.758
Nov-Dec3.9980.7911.1590.3035.0632.116
Nov-Jan10.401NA1.6320.31815.95475.197

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1017.53421.763
2012.42213.051
309.4739.291
407.2856.748
505.7975.091
604.6783.748
703.5292.806
802.6152.001
901.6781.244

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.47972.760
231.38150.790
327.36343.702
424.70638.573
523.00534.997
621.41430.695
720.20227.930
819.20625.518
918.32623.309
1017.53421.763
1116.82520.549
1216.04119.281
1315.41018.355
1414.87017.456
1514.47816.518
1614.01915.812
1713.50815.001
1813.09314.212
1912.78413.551
2012.42213.051
2112.04212.578
2211.70012.049
2311.43611.718
2411.14311.218
2510.79710.921
2610.53510.667
2710.28910.278
289.9459.978
299.6529.654
309.4739.291
319.1828.975
328.8958.650
338.6578.407
348.4378.181
358.2227.857
368.0247.616
377.7887.373
387.6367.156
397.4376.976
407.2856.748
417.1256.530
426.9746.375
436.8006.242
446.6806.067
456.5415.912
466.4115.738
476.2495.589
486.1055.393
495.9585.245
505.7975.091
515.6714.954
525.5754.821
535.4584.661
545.3364.520
555.2064.366
565.1144.200
575.0014.099
584.8763.998
594.7443.892
604.6783.748
614.5573.616
624.4333.519
634.3393.428
644.2403.322
654.1093.239
663.9983.155
673.8713.077
683.7622.978
693.6452.877
703.5292.806
713.4582.710
723.3532.634
733.2622.546
743.1752.469
753.0732.384
762.9812.310
772.8622.230
782.7702.158
792.6842.089
802.6152.001
812.5131.919
822.4231.843
832.3191.757
842.2251.687
852.1381.627
862.0301.547
871.9211.466
881.8501.402
891.7661.327
901.6781.244
911.5771.169
921.4621.082
931.3450.991
941.2210.883
951.1140.808
960.9820.723
970.8420.603
980.6460.503
990.4510.391


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence