Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


Return to catchment list
Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2001) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Dec2.5780.4260.5130.5193.7561.359
Dec-Jan8.981NA0.9870.62314.64774.439
Dec-Feb14.778NA1.4010.78421.12981.568

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.403
2019.901
3014.220
4010.306
507.748
605.680
704.220
802.988
901.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
185.121
265.815
358.723
453.159
549.213
643.994
740.524
837.435
934.505
1032.403
1130.724
1228.938
1327.630
1426.360
1525.009
1623.970
1722.795
1821.639
1920.655
2019.901
2119.191
2218.422
2317.897
2417.149
2516.692
2616.305
2715.727
2815.279
2914.768
3014.220
3113.731
3213.246
3312.871
3412.508
3512.022
3611.642
3711.271
3810.932
3910.659
4010.306
419.972
429.730
439.528
449.256
459.015
468.750
478.514
488.211
497.987
507.748
517.536
527.326
537.086
546.860
556.636
566.369
576.215
586.061
595.894
605.680
615.470
625.319
635.181
645.014
654.885
664.756
674.637
684.484
694.330
704.220
714.073
723.956
733.822
743.704
753.574
763.461
773.339
783.228
793.123
802.988
812.864
822.747
832.617
842.510
852.419
862.298
872.175
882.078
891.964
901.839
911.726
921.594
931.457
941.296
951.183
961.056
970.877
980.729
990.563


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence