Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge



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Historical and exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan5.50829.3491.6600.1054.73473.081
Jan-Feb10.80637.2554.6520.26611.40680.209
Jan-Mar15.83439.0526.4530.69516.603117.634

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.164
2022.183
3016.325
4012.220
509.455
607.140
705.461
803.977
902.520

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1107.067
276.153
366.260
459.085
554.064
647.987
744.052
840.597
937.411
1035.164
1133.390
1231.528
1330.162
1428.827
1527.429
1626.369
1725.148
1823.953
1922.948
2022.183
2121.458
2220.642
2320.130
2419.354
2518.891
2618.494
2717.883
2817.412
2916.900
3016.325
3115.823
3215.304
3314.913
3414.551
3514.028
3613.638
3713.243
3812.889
3912.595
4012.220
4111.861
4211.605
4311.384
4411.094
4510.836
4610.544
4710.295
489.965
499.715
509.455
519.222
528.996
538.721
548.479
558.215
567.927
577.753
587.577
597.392
607.140
616.907
626.737
636.576
646.387
656.239
666.089
675.950
685.771
695.590
705.461
715.287
725.148
734.988
744.847
754.691
764.554
774.406
784.271
794.143
803.977
813.823
823.678
833.516
843.381
853.266
863.112
872.955
882.830
892.682
902.520
912.369
922.195
932.011
941.790
951.634
961.457
971.202
980.986
990.737


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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