Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road( Nov 2017 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.82417.954
2023.1437.387
3018.6313.936
4014.3462.158
5010.6721.270
607.3710.714
704.5620.412
802.5010.218
900.9800.089

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
150.88567.911
244.15350.643
341.04943.982
438.72838.607
536.94634.718
635.43329.494
733.96125.997
832.67722.896
931.81719.994
1030.82417.954
1129.62916.361
1228.83614.712
1327.74213.538
1426.90312.429
1526.15511.289
1625.64110.440
1724.8739.513
1824.2458.635
1923.6807.918
2023.1437.387
2122.6666.902
2222.1646.393
2321.7306.056
2421.3215.591
2520.8555.315
2620.4125.086
2719.9734.754
2819.4734.503
2919.1394.225
3018.6313.936
3118.1003.687
3217.6913.447
3317.2123.267
3416.7093.097
3516.2822.876
3615.8332.709
3715.4782.550
3815.0972.409
3914.7382.298
4014.3462.158
4113.9402.030
4213.5151.939
4313.1371.865
4412.7341.767
4512.3991.682
4611.9961.591
4711.6571.513
4811.4211.414
4911.0631.343
5010.6721.270
5110.3661.206
5210.0511.145
539.7111.076
549.4081.013
559.0820.953
568.7030.883
578.4220.844
588.0050.805
597.7430.765
607.3710.714
617.0860.666
626.8440.633
636.5150.602
646.1550.567
655.8900.540
665.5780.514
675.3520.491
685.1500.461
694.8160.432
704.5620.412
714.3220.386
724.1220.366
733.8580.343
743.6150.324
753.3270.303
763.1480.286
772.9880.267
782.8450.251
792.7010.236
802.5010.218
812.3260.201
822.1940.186
831.9930.170
841.8470.158
851.6770.147
861.5360.134
871.3980.121
881.2680.111
891.0930.100
900.9800.089
910.8440.079
920.7220.068
930.6200.057
940.5200.046
950.4250.039
960.3420.031
970.2370.022
980.1530.016
990.0770.009


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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