Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.795
2011.720
307.365
404.665
503.102
601.987
701.297
800.791
900.394

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
157.144
245.342
340.767
437.048
534.327
630.607
728.050
825.715
923.449
1021.795
1120.459
1219.025
1317.968
1416.938
1515.841
1614.998
1714.045
1813.111
1912.321
2011.720
2111.158
2210.552
2310.142
249.563
259.212
268.917
278.481
288.145
297.766
307.365
317.010
326.663
336.398
346.145
355.808
365.550
375.300
385.074
394.894
404.665
414.451
424.297
434.170
444.001
453.853
463.692
473.550
483.371
493.240
503.102
512.981
522.863
532.729
542.605
552.484
562.342
572.261
582.181
592.095
601.987
611.882
621.808
631.741
641.661
651.601
661.540
671.485
681.415
691.346
701.297
711.233
721.182
731.125
741.076
751.022
760.976
770.927
780.883
790.842
800.791
810.744
820.701
830.654
840.616
850.584
860.542
870.501
880.470
890.433
900.394
910.360
920.321
930.282
940.238
950.209
960.178
970.136
980.105
990.072


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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