Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.874
206.398
303.963
402.464
501.606
601.005
700.644
800.383
900.184

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
129.867
223.976
321.657
419.783
518.356
616.478
715.163
813.939
912.749
1011.874
1111.165
1210.402
139.831
149.266
158.668
168.211
177.682
187.164
196.728
206.398
216.086
225.737
235.520
245.194
255.001
264.837
274.587
284.395
294.191
303.963
313.768
323.569
333.422
343.287
353.095
362.955
372.815
382.691
392.590
402.464
412.345
422.261
432.190
442.098
452.017
461.927
471.852
481.754
491.681
501.606
511.541
521.478
531.403
541.339
551.270
561.197
571.153
581.110
591.065
601.005
610.951
620.912
630.876
640.835
650.803
660.771
670.742
680.706
690.670
700.644
710.611
720.584
730.555
740.529
750.502
760.478
770.453
780.430
790.409
800.383
810.359
820.337
830.314
840.294
850.278
860.258
870.237
880.222
890.204
900.184
910.167
920.149
930.130
940.109
950.095
960.080
970.060
980.046
990.031


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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