Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.1008.563
204.6304.350
303.1602.664
402.3061.658
501.6801.089
601.2400.689
700.8620.445
800.5570.267
900.2870.131

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
116.49325.239
213.63419.538
312.03417.345
410.77615.574
59.98314.289
69.33112.550
78.50211.371
88.05010.309
97.5649.293
107.1008.563
116.7407.980
126.4347.362
136.1646.912
145.9206.478
155.7376.020
165.5115.672
175.2225.283
185.0064.905
194.8334.589
204.6304.350
214.4024.127
224.2143.890
234.0573.730
243.9123.505
253.7613.369
263.6413.256
273.5003.089
283.3702.960
293.2772.816
303.1602.664
313.0522.531
322.9712.400
332.8582.301
342.7642.206
352.6742.081
362.5971.985
372.5421.892
382.4531.809
392.3781.743
402.3061.658
412.2371.580
422.1801.523
432.1041.477
442.0421.415
451.9751.361
461.9021.302
471.8561.251
481.7871.186
491.7281.138
501.6801.089
511.6161.045
521.5681.002
531.5220.954
541.4780.910
551.4380.866
561.3940.815
571.3610.786
581.3150.758
591.2750.727
601.2400.689
611.2050.651
621.1700.625
631.1340.601
641.0930.573
651.0590.551
661.0190.530
670.9780.511
680.9390.486
690.9000.462
700.8620.445
710.8300.422
720.8000.404
730.7690.384
740.7300.367
750.7030.348
760.6740.332
770.6450.315
780.6170.300
790.5880.285
800.5570.267
810.5260.251
820.5010.236
830.4720.220
840.4480.207
850.4220.196
860.3980.182
870.3650.168
880.3440.157
890.3100.144
900.2870.131
910.2600.119
920.2370.106
930.2090.093
940.1800.078
950.1440.068
960.1110.058
970.0840.044
980.0550.034
990.0200.023


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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