Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.5245.779
203.1292.599
302.0631.515
401.4340.910
501.0140.580
600.7310.354
700.4970.222
800.3000.127
900.1420.057

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.84726.730
213.69718.420
311.03115.415
49.70613.155
58.59611.555
67.7259.626
77.0518.400
86.4327.352
95.8896.416
105.5245.779
115.1235.292
124.8904.796
134.6274.443
144.3674.108
154.1503.768
163.8743.518
173.6663.238
183.4802.974
193.2902.758
203.1292.599
213.0062.451
222.8822.290
232.7652.191
242.6652.044
252.5321.959
262.4181.887
272.3311.779
282.2591.697
292.1531.610
302.0631.515
311.9961.434
321.9201.352
331.8411.292
341.7801.237
351.7131.160
361.6411.104
371.5911.048
381.5330.999
391.4810.959
401.4340.910
411.3860.863
421.3220.831
431.2750.803
441.2270.767
451.1950.736
461.1600.702
471.1310.673
481.0860.636
491.0500.608
501.0140.580
510.9850.555
520.9550.531
530.9220.503
540.8930.479
550.8650.453
560.8310.425
570.8020.409
580.7760.393
590.7550.376
600.7310.354
610.7090.334
620.6810.320
630.6530.307
640.6350.292
650.6080.280
660.5830.268
670.5590.258
680.5350.244
690.5120.231
700.4970.222
710.4760.209
720.4560.200
730.4350.189
740.4180.180
750.3990.170
760.3800.161
770.3590.152
780.3390.144
790.3230.137
800.3000.127
810.2880.119
820.2710.111
830.2600.103
840.2420.096
850.2260.090
860.2060.083
870.1910.076
880.1770.070
890.1620.064
900.1420.057
910.1270.051
920.1110.045
930.0970.038
940.0820.031
950.0660.026
960.0480.021
970.0330.014
980.0170.009
990.0000.005


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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