Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Probability distribution for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.1660.170
Median0.4630.580
Mean1.1482.254
75% Quartile1.1911.958
Interquartile Range1.0261.788

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.69826.730
27.52218.420
35.94315.415
45.08413.155
54.48811.555
63.8829.626
73.5008.400
83.1657.352
92.9286.416
102.7095.779
112.5105.292
122.3194.796
132.1784.443
142.0794.108
151.9443.768
161.8523.518
171.7413.238
181.6292.974
191.5662.758
201.4822.599
211.4172.451
221.3552.290
231.3012.191
241.2512.044
251.1921.959
261.1451.887
271.1001.779
281.0491.697
291.0101.610
300.9761.515
310.9401.434
320.9031.352
330.8601.292
340.8341.237
350.8021.160
360.7701.104
370.7331.048
380.7010.999
390.6740.959
400.6520.910
410.6320.863
420.6080.831
430.5880.803
440.5700.767
450.5520.736
460.5310.702
470.5120.673
480.4950.636
490.4790.608
500.4630.580
510.4430.555
520.4250.531
530.4140.503
540.3980.479
550.3840.453
560.3700.425
570.3580.409
580.3450.393
590.3330.376
600.3230.354
610.3120.334
620.2970.320
630.2870.307
640.2760.292
650.2650.280
660.2540.268
670.2430.258
680.2350.244
690.2250.231
700.2150.222
710.2030.209
720.1950.200
730.1840.189
740.1740.180
750.1660.170
760.1570.161
770.1480.152
780.1380.144
790.1290.137
800.1210.127
810.1130.119
820.1070.111
830.0990.103
840.0920.096
850.0850.090
860.0770.083
870.0690.076
880.0610.070
890.0550.064
900.0470.057
910.0400.051
920.0330.045
930.0260.038
940.0190.031
950.0120.026
960.0020.021
970.0000.014
980.0000.009
990.0000.005


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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