Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Probability distribution for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.6060.797
Median6.0452.343
Mean8.0135.561
75% Quartile11.5546.725
Interquartile Range8.9485.929

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.34439.094
227.83031.198
325.38628.137
423.46925.646
522.13223.823
621.02821.328
719.96619.609
819.24318.037
918.52216.507
1017.85615.388
1117.13214.482
1216.52313.507
1316.09312.786
1415.65812.082
1515.17511.330
1614.63910.750
1714.16410.093
1813.8049.448
1913.4618.900
2013.1248.482
2112.8078.089
2212.5307.666
2312.1947.379
2411.8966.972
2511.5566.725
2611.2676.518
2710.9966.209
2810.7355.972
2910.5235.704
3010.2095.418
319.9755.166
329.7054.918
339.4204.729
349.1644.547
358.9414.306
368.7124.120
378.4913.940
388.2513.778
398.0173.648
407.8223.482
417.6213.327
427.4243.215
437.2653.123
447.0673.000
456.8752.892
466.6772.775
476.5052.671
486.3452.540
496.1922.444
506.0452.343
515.8472.254
525.6432.168
535.4762.069
545.3111.978
555.1631.888
564.9981.784
574.8641.723
584.7101.664
594.5651.601
604.4361.520
614.2891.442
624.1461.387
634.0021.337
643.8681.277
653.7431.232
663.6091.187
673.4881.146
683.3721.093
693.2641.041
703.1431.004
713.0370.956
722.9370.918
732.8240.875
742.7190.837
752.6030.797
762.5010.762
772.3930.724
782.2990.691
792.1560.660
802.0500.620
811.9560.585
821.8730.552
831.7790.516
841.6390.486
851.5450.462
861.4330.430
871.3480.398
881.2570.374
891.1740.345
901.0720.315
911.0010.288
920.8820.258
930.7650.228
940.6640.193
950.5530.170
960.4400.145
970.3280.112
980.2160.087
990.0510.061


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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