Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


  • Jan

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Probability distribution for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road ( Jan 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.382
Median4.175
Mean10.987
75% Quartile12.472
Interquartile Range11.091

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
186.455
267.514
360.144
454.252
549.813
644.062
740.108
836.490
933.041
1030.555
1128.566
1226.461
1324.908
1423.390
1521.803
1620.604
1719.231
1817.899
1916.791
2015.956
2115.173
2214.303
2313.763
2412.955
2512.478
2612.074
2711.460
2810.991
2910.490
309.935
319.459
328.974
338.615
348.287
357.820
367.478
377.137
386.836
396.590
406.281
415.990
425.786
435.611
445.385
455.187
464.966
474.781
484.539
494.359
504.175
514.012
523.857
533.671
543.511
553.338
563.155
573.046
582.936
592.824
602.673
612.536
622.438
632.347
642.241
652.160
662.079
672.005
681.911
691.817
701.752
711.665
721.597
731.520
741.454
751.382
761.319
771.253
781.194
791.139
801.070
811.006
820.948
830.885
840.834
850.791
860.735
870.679
880.637
890.587
900.535
910.488
920.436
930.383
940.324
950.284
960.242
970.186
980.143
990.099


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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