Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road



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Probability distribution for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road ( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.2530.348
Median0.6741.089
Mean1.3873.062
75% Quartile1.6213.369
Interquartile Range1.3683.021

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.08425.239
27.95119.538
36.62817.345
45.78915.574
55.28114.289
64.68412.550
74.37511.371
84.11410.309
93.8449.293
103.5368.563
113.2737.980
123.0467.362
132.8416.912
142.7326.478
152.6066.020
162.4325.672
172.3165.283
182.2364.905
192.1074.589
202.0274.350
211.9274.127
221.8473.890
231.7653.730
241.6913.505
251.6223.369
261.5613.256
271.5113.089
281.4552.960
291.3972.816
301.3412.664
311.2992.531
321.2572.400
331.2052.301
341.1602.206
351.1242.081
361.0861.985
371.0511.892
381.0101.809
390.9721.743
400.9361.658
410.9101.580
420.8811.523
430.8551.477
440.8251.415
450.7971.361
460.7701.302
470.7441.251
480.7231.186
490.6951.138
500.6741.089
510.6501.045
520.6271.002
530.6040.954
540.5810.910
550.5630.866
560.5480.815
570.5240.786
580.5070.758
590.4900.727
600.4770.689
610.4610.651
620.4460.625
630.4290.601
640.4110.573
650.3950.551
660.3840.530
670.3660.511
680.3490.486
690.3370.462
700.3220.445
710.3070.422
720.2940.404
730.2800.384
740.2660.367
750.2530.348
760.2370.332
770.2260.315
780.2130.300
790.2020.285
800.1900.267
810.1790.251
820.1690.236
830.1550.220
840.1460.207
850.1360.196
860.1260.182
870.1130.168
880.1020.157
890.0900.144
900.0810.131
910.0700.119
920.0590.106
930.0470.093
940.0370.078
950.0250.068
960.0110.058
970.0000.044
980.0000.034
990.0000.023


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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