Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1975+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1977) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov0.4630.0910.1210.0060.4010.673
Nov-Dec2.2061.9960.1400.0084.41122.916
Nov-Jan5.09511.51618.4270.00911.68860.915

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.99615.035
203.3306.598
302.1403.784
401.4332.239
500.9771.409
600.6650.850
700.4190.526
800.2250.299
900.0530.133

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.93571.610
215.34749.227
312.59841.096
410.82834.974
59.57330.635
68.69325.408
77.67922.092
86.91619.262
96.54716.745
105.99615.035
115.64313.730
125.28112.406
134.95211.466
144.61410.576
154.3569.675
164.0799.014
173.8708.276
183.6947.580
193.5127.016
203.3306.598
213.1526.213
222.9865.791
232.8725.534
242.7665.153
252.6384.931
262.5084.745
272.4174.465
282.3274.254
292.2214.030
302.1403.784
312.0453.576
321.9733.366
331.8943.212
341.8223.072
351.7662.875
361.6922.731
371.6212.590
381.5642.466
391.4962.365
401.4332.239
411.3872.122
421.3332.039
431.2801.970
441.2251.880
451.1831.802
461.1491.715
471.1061.643
481.0631.549
491.0121.479
500.9771.409
510.9371.347
520.9071.288
530.8651.218
540.8321.158
550.8001.094
560.7721.026
570.7400.986
580.7140.946
590.6870.905
600.6650.850
610.6310.801
620.6060.766
630.5730.734
640.5510.696
650.5250.668
660.5060.639
670.4820.613
680.4630.581
690.4410.549
700.4190.526
710.3950.497
720.3690.474
730.3480.448
740.3280.425
750.3060.401
760.2890.381
770.2710.359
780.2530.340
790.2400.322
800.2250.299
810.2070.279
820.1870.261
830.1670.241
840.1480.224
850.1320.211
860.1180.194
870.1010.177
880.0820.164
890.0640.149
900.0530.133
910.0400.120
920.0230.105
930.0070.090
940.0000.073
950.0000.062
960.0000.050
970.0000.035
980.0000.024
990.0000.014


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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