Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1975+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1977) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec1.7431.9060.0180.0014.01022.243
Dec-Jan4.63211.42518.3050.00311.28760.243
Dec-Feb9.08719.01450.5170.02014.67863.227

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.863
2012.435
307.187
404.218
502.625
601.563
700.956
800.538
900.239

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
175.602
259.084
352.598
447.375
543.412
638.234
734.642
831.334
928.160
1025.863
1124.021
1222.070
1320.632
1419.227
1517.762
1616.659
1715.401
1814.188
1913.186
2012.435
2111.735
2210.961
2310.485
249.776
259.361
269.011
278.482
288.081
297.655
307.187
316.788
326.386
336.090
345.821
355.443
365.167
374.894
384.655
394.461
404.218
413.993
423.835
433.701
443.528
453.378
463.211
473.072
482.892
492.760
502.625
512.506
522.394
532.260
542.146
552.024
561.895
571.819
581.744
591.666
601.563
611.471
621.405
631.344
641.274
651.220
661.167
671.119
681.058
690.998
700.956
710.901
720.859
730.811
740.770
750.725
760.687
770.647
780.612
790.579
800.538
810.501
820.468
830.431
840.402
850.378
860.347
870.316
880.293
890.267
900.239
910.214
920.187
930.161
940.132
950.113
960.093
970.067
980.048
990.030


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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