Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1975+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1991) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2007) (GL)
Sep0.5470.3200.1990.0010.8623.915
Sep-Oct0.8610.4370.4100.0011.2384.301
Sep-Nov1.3130.5580.5310.0011.6084.598

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.8163.382
202.2272.539
301.7971.984
401.4171.463
501.0801.013
600.7670.570
700.5090.269
800.2750.099
900.1000.023

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.5755.506
24.0174.830
33.7714.565
43.5544.347
53.3594.184
63.2553.958
73.1543.798
83.0263.647
92.9203.496
102.8163.382
112.7453.287
122.6673.180
132.6063.099
142.5503.017
152.4882.926
162.4352.853
172.3822.768
182.3372.679
192.2772.601
202.2272.539
212.1802.478
222.1352.410
232.0972.362
242.0562.291
252.0142.247
261.9722.208
271.9272.149
281.8872.101
291.8382.045
301.7971.984
311.7501.926
321.7131.868
331.6751.821
341.6351.775
351.5981.711
361.5651.659
371.5251.606
381.4801.557
391.4511.517
401.4171.463
411.3821.410
421.3541.371
431.3231.337
441.2831.291
451.2471.249
461.2121.202
471.1801.159
481.1471.103
491.1141.060
501.0801.013
511.0460.971
521.0190.928
530.9860.878
540.9610.830
550.9330.782
560.9090.723
570.8750.689
580.8360.655
590.8000.618
600.7670.570
610.7410.523
620.7110.490
630.6830.460
640.6540.425
650.6270.398
660.6040.371
670.5790.347
680.5540.318
690.5340.289
700.5090.269
710.4810.244
720.4590.225
730.4340.204
740.4090.186
750.3850.168
760.3610.153
770.3430.138
780.3170.125
790.2960.113
800.2750.099
810.2530.087
820.2340.077
830.2140.067
840.1970.059
850.1830.053
860.1610.045
870.1470.038
880.1310.034
890.1130.028
900.1000.023
910.0870.019
920.0750.015
930.0620.012
940.0490.008
950.0370.006
960.0280.004
970.0180.003
980.0120.001
990.0050.001


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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