Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Product list for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1975+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1997) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct0.3140.1170.2110.0020.3762.119
Oct-Nov0.7660.2390.3320.0030.7462.791
Oct-Dec2.4550.2570.4370.0064.25725.035

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.1597.660
203.0173.654
302.0052.193
401.3901.349
500.9520.877
600.6690.546
700.4410.347
800.2470.203
900.0900.091

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.31228.573
211.40920.876
39.72217.980
48.58315.732
57.71614.090
67.07912.041
76.57810.692
85.9289.505
95.4888.417
105.1597.660
114.8307.070
124.5656.462
134.3016.024
144.0545.603
153.8495.172
163.6534.852
173.5104.491
183.3124.147
193.1773.865
203.0173.654
212.8583.459
222.7253.244
232.6423.111
242.5302.914
252.4502.799
262.3562.702
272.2372.554
282.1572.443
292.0832.324
302.0052.193
311.9432.081
321.8721.968
331.8151.885
341.7541.809
351.7041.701
361.6321.622
371.5621.544
381.4911.475
391.4411.419
401.3901.349
411.3381.283
421.2901.237
431.2461.198
441.1951.147
451.1441.102
461.1021.053
471.0631.011
481.0270.957
490.9870.917
500.9520.877
510.9190.840
520.8910.806
530.8540.765
540.8250.730
550.7920.692
560.7670.652
570.7430.628
580.7190.604
590.6940.579
600.6690.546
610.6420.517
620.6180.495
630.5940.476
640.5690.453
650.5460.435
660.5240.418
670.5040.402
680.4840.382
690.4630.361
700.4410.347
710.4160.329
720.3930.314
730.3750.298
740.3580.284
750.3420.269
760.3250.255
770.3050.241
780.2890.229
790.2670.217
800.2470.203
810.2280.189
820.2140.177
830.1990.164
840.1850.153
850.1700.144
860.1540.133
870.1380.121
880.1180.112
890.1030.102
900.0900.091
910.0810.082
920.0670.071
930.0500.061
940.0330.049
950.0180.041
960.0040.032
970.0000.021
980.0000.013
990.0000.004


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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