Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1975+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Feb5.11732.2120.0160.0736.59344.364
Feb-Mar11.22541.5165.5590.08817.13971.391
Feb-Apr14.93945.1329.5700.08920.60875.986

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.509
2022.401
3014.057
408.545
505.382
603.223
701.968
801.108
900.494

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
183.542
269.091
363.423
458.764
555.313
650.514
747.143
843.995
940.859
1038.509
1136.565
1234.427
1332.813
1431.205
1529.450
1628.068
1726.472
1824.868
1923.479
2022.401
2121.375
2220.254
2319.483
2418.382
2517.707
2617.134
2716.279
2815.616
2914.863
3014.057
3113.342
3212.638
3312.098
3411.580
3510.891
3610.360
379.847
389.384
399.015
408.545
418.107
427.792
437.534
447.189
456.889
466.563
476.277
485.918
495.656
505.382
515.141
524.909
534.647
544.405
554.170
563.897
573.742
583.590
593.428
603.223
613.028
622.892
632.768
642.621
652.511
662.401
672.302
682.177
692.054
701.968
711.855
721.768
731.669
741.584
751.493
761.415
771.333
781.260
791.193
801.108
811.033
820.964
830.889
840.829
850.780
860.716
870.653
880.606
890.551
900.494
910.444
920.389
930.335
940.276
950.237
960.196
970.144
980.106
990.069


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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