Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tinana Creek at Tagigan Road ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1975+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Mar6.1089.3045.5430.01410.5454.459
Mar-Apr9.82112.9209.5540.01614.01439.813
Mar-May12.26813.99410.5080.18615.02151.347

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.239
2019.497
3013.298
408.664
505.718
603.565
702.249
801.311
900.613

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
158.778
249.659
346.080
443.135
540.951
637.909
735.766
833.759
931.751
1030.239
1128.982
1227.592
1326.536
1425.477
1524.312
1623.387
1722.309
1821.213
1920.251
2019.497
2118.771
2217.969
2317.411
2416.604
2516.102
2615.673
2715.026
2814.517
2913.932
3013.298
3112.727
3212.157
3311.714
3411.284
3510.705
3610.253
379.810
389.407
399.082
408.664
418.269
427.984
437.748
447.430
457.151
466.846
476.576
486.234
495.983
505.718
515.485
525.257
534.999
544.760
554.525
564.251
574.094
583.939
593.774
603.565
613.364
623.222
633.093
642.940
652.824
662.709
672.604
682.472
692.341
702.249
712.128
722.034
731.927
741.835
751.736
761.650
771.560
781.480
791.405
801.311
811.227
821.150
831.065
840.998
850.942
860.869
870.797
880.742
890.679
900.613
910.555
920.490
930.425
940.354
950.307
960.257
970.192
980.144
990.096


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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