Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.33810.127
2018.9874.789
3015.2182.165
4012.4970.881
509.6640.387
607.1050.157
704.7470.067
802.6760.025
901.2150.006

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
156.24924.223
245.36719.737
338.29217.975
434.66916.523
532.32515.445
630.20313.941
728.63612.879
827.52011.882
926.42910.882
1025.33810.127
1124.1689.499
1223.3158.802
1322.4998.273
1422.0227.742
1521.6237.158
1621.0926.696
1720.5536.160
1820.0425.620
1919.5485.151
2018.9874.789
2118.4824.446
2218.1234.074
2317.7053.821
2417.3863.465
2516.9153.250
2616.5433.071
2716.2342.809
2815.9242.611
2915.5822.392
3015.2182.165
3114.9411.971
3214.6631.787
3314.3491.651
3414.0701.526
3513.7991.365
3613.5451.247
3713.2981.138
3813.0611.043
3912.7910.970
4012.4970.881
4112.2440.802
4211.9350.747
4311.6320.703
4411.3240.646
4511.0660.599
4610.8030.550
4710.5260.508
4810.2240.457
499.9170.422
509.6640.387
519.3380.357
529.1140.329
538.8590.298
548.5800.272
558.3060.247
567.9740.219
577.7340.204
587.5040.190
597.2980.175
607.1050.157
616.8840.141
626.6800.130
636.4550.120
646.1500.110
655.9110.102
665.6380.094
675.3800.087
685.1670.079
694.9650.072
704.7470.067
714.4840.060
724.2520.055
734.0160.050
743.8030.046
753.5760.041
763.3620.038
773.1910.034
783.0020.031
792.8450.028
802.6760.025
812.5400.022
822.4150.019
832.2320.017
842.0720.015
851.9310.013
861.7830.011
871.6500.010
881.4930.009
891.3460.007
901.2150.006
911.0680.005
920.9430.004
930.7920.003
940.6790.002
950.5480.002
960.4460.001
970.3470.001
980.2510.000
990.1360.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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