Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.2981.145
201.7520.465
301.4460.233
401.1900.121
500.9980.063
600.8310.030
700.6790.014
800.5400.004
900.3770.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.2184.174
23.4753.364
33.1702.745
42.9852.347
52.8132.086
62.6991.811
72.5811.606
82.4721.442
92.3711.281
102.2981.145
112.2281.034
122.1650.915
132.1000.829
142.0350.752
151.9830.687
161.9250.637
171.8730.582
181.8330.546
191.7900.495
201.7520.465
211.7170.444
221.6820.413
231.6490.386
241.6140.356
251.5840.331
261.5550.308
271.5240.283
281.5000.264
291.4750.249
301.4460.233
311.4180.214
321.3940.200
331.3640.186
341.3400.174
351.3130.164
361.2810.153
371.2600.143
381.2360.135
391.2140.128
401.1900.121
411.1660.114
421.1470.106
431.1240.100
441.1030.093
451.0870.087
461.0690.082
471.0530.076
481.0340.072
491.0160.068
500.9980.063
510.9790.058
520.9620.054
530.9460.050
540.9290.046
550.9120.044
560.8940.041
570.8780.038
580.8620.035
590.8450.032
600.8310.030
610.8110.028
620.7970.026
630.7830.024
640.7670.023
650.7540.021
660.7400.020
670.7230.018
680.7060.017
690.6930.015
700.6790.014
710.6630.013
720.6490.012
730.6330.011
740.6190.010
750.6050.009
760.5900.008
770.5750.007
780.5640.006
790.5520.005
800.5400.004
810.5250.004
820.5120.003
830.4980.002
840.4820.002
850.4580.001
860.4410.000
870.4260.000
880.4110.000
890.3960.000
900.3770.000
910.3600.000
920.3370.000
930.3200.000
940.2950.000
950.2670.000
960.2490.000
970.2210.000
980.1910.000
990.1480.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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