Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.1990.954
202.0190.299
301.3280.122
400.8810.052
500.5880.023
600.3980.009
700.2520.003
800.1450.001
900.0610.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.5872.983
25.7852.643
35.1082.299
44.6351.997
54.2991.736
64.0011.571
73.7441.394
83.5611.231
93.3561.094
103.1990.954
113.0150.841
122.8690.746
132.7520.645
142.6200.573
152.5100.507
162.4140.451
172.2950.412
182.2180.364
192.1030.338
202.0190.299
211.9040.276
221.8390.258
231.7760.236
241.7170.215
251.6350.195
261.5550.176
271.4890.161
281.4320.145
291.3670.132
301.3280.122
311.2800.111
321.2250.100
331.1670.091
341.1240.083
351.0730.076
361.0330.071
370.9910.065
380.9520.059
390.9200.055
400.8810.052
410.8540.048
420.8200.044
430.7900.041
440.7610.037
450.7270.034
460.6910.031
470.6640.029
480.6400.026
490.6150.025
500.5880.023
510.5690.021
520.5460.019
530.5260.017
540.5060.015
550.4880.014
560.4670.013
570.4490.012
580.4300.011
590.4120.010
600.3980.009
610.3830.008
620.3670.007
630.3530.007
640.3390.006
650.3260.006
660.3050.005
670.2900.005
680.2770.004
690.2640.004
700.2520.003
710.2400.003
720.2270.003
730.2190.002
740.2070.002
750.1960.002
760.1840.002
770.1730.001
780.1610.001
790.1520.001
800.1450.001
810.1360.001
820.1260.000
830.1200.000
840.1100.000
850.0990.000
860.0910.000
870.0830.000
880.0770.000
890.0680.000
900.0610.000
910.0540.000
920.0470.000
930.0400.000
940.0340.000
950.0280.000
960.0230.000
970.0170.000
980.0110.000
990.0080.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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