Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.2371.145
204.1940.465
303.5800.233
403.1670.121
502.7680.063
602.4260.030
702.0580.014
801.6980.004
901.2280.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19.3124.174
28.0293.364
37.3232.745
46.7742.347
56.3742.086
66.0801.811
75.7941.606
85.5531.442
95.3701.281
105.2371.145
115.0901.034
124.9640.915
134.8670.829
144.7550.752
154.6330.687
164.5220.637
174.4370.582
184.3500.546
194.2760.495
204.1940.465
214.1230.444
224.0550.413
233.9910.386
243.9370.356
253.8770.331
263.8200.308
273.7640.283
283.6910.264
293.6250.249
303.5800.233
313.5230.214
323.4810.200
333.4420.186
343.4150.174
353.3760.164
363.3400.153
373.3050.143
383.2490.135
393.2050.128
403.1670.121
413.1220.114
423.0820.106
433.0510.100
443.0140.093
452.9740.087
462.9240.082
472.8830.076
482.8430.072
492.8050.068
502.7680.063
512.7340.058
522.6970.054
532.6600.050
542.6290.046
552.5930.044
562.5580.041
572.5200.038
582.4950.035
592.4590.032
602.4260.030
612.3810.028
622.3450.026
632.3100.024
642.2670.023
652.2290.021
662.1960.020
672.1580.018
682.1300.017
692.0930.015
702.0580.014
712.0300.013
721.9980.012
731.9530.011
741.9160.010
751.8840.009
761.8460.008
771.8130.007
781.7730.006
791.7320.005
801.6980.004
811.6580.004
821.6100.003
831.5780.002
841.5190.002
851.4810.001
861.4380.000
871.3910.000
881.3340.000
891.2880.000
901.2280.000
911.1810.000
921.1130.000
931.0520.000
940.9690.000
950.9070.000
960.8270.000
970.7580.000
980.6630.000
990.4990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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