Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River



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Exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10281.653
20185.425
30128.321
4084.236
5055.561
6034.409
7021.509
8012.392
905.690

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1533.619
2453.237
3421.676
4395.694
5376.422
6349.558
7330.615
8312.854
9295.066
10281.653
11270.487
12258.118
13248.706
14239.248
15228.826
16220.536
17210.842
18200.960
19192.267
20185.425
21178.827
22171.503
23166.399
24158.992
25154.374
26150.415
27144.422
28139.698
29134.252
30128.321
31122.961
32117.588
33113.401
34109.326
35103.823
3699.505
3795.272
3891.398
3988.270
4084.236
4180.425
4277.658
4375.367
4472.279
4569.562
4666.590
4763.957
4860.613
4958.152
5055.561
5153.271
5251.038
5348.502
5446.153
5543.845
5641.149
5739.607
5838.089
5936.467
6034.409
6132.434
6231.041
6329.777
6428.272
6527.137
6626.009
6724.984
6823.688
6922.404
7021.509
7120.324
7219.407
7318.366
7417.466
7516.504
7615.673
7714.800
7814.021
7913.300
8012.392
8111.574
8210.829
8310.019
849.370
858.829
868.131
877.447
886.922
896.321
905.690
915.136
924.522
933.915
943.241
952.800
962.334
971.733
981.288
990.851


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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