Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Probability distribution for Coalseam Creek at Laura River( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.1850.344
Median1.4936.652
Mean6.57114.938
75% Quartile8.49924.925
Interquartile Range8.31424.580

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
148.02474.512
240.39964.240
335.39660.204
432.40356.879
529.45454.410
627.38950.964
725.29048.529
823.68346.240
922.44643.942
1021.36442.202
1119.92740.749
1218.95539.132
1317.96537.897
1416.96736.649
1515.97035.266
1615.06634.159
1714.11232.855
1813.26831.512
1912.38530.319
2011.66029.371
2110.95128.447
2210.20427.410
239.60226.679
249.06425.604
258.50124.925
267.78924.337
277.19723.434
286.85422.711
296.48021.865
306.00420.924
315.61020.056
325.11219.165
334.79718.457
344.45417.753
354.16416.779
363.84615.993
373.57215.203
383.34414.461
393.15613.849
402.97913.040
412.76012.254
422.56011.670
432.40111.179
442.24310.504
452.0789.898
461.9359.224
471.8238.619
481.7067.840
491.5827.262
501.4936.652
511.3876.115
521.2995.597
531.1875.018
541.1034.495
551.0433.998
560.9773.445
570.9043.145
580.8492.860
590.7952.571
600.7422.227
610.6911.920
620.6381.720
630.5921.548
640.5481.357
650.5021.223
660.4541.098
670.4210.991
680.3720.865
690.3400.751
700.3020.677
710.2710.585
720.2400.520
730.2220.452
740.2050.398
750.1850.344
760.1630.302
770.1400.261
780.1210.227
790.1050.199
800.0880.166
810.0740.140
820.0620.118
830.0510.097
840.0410.082
850.0330.070
860.0250.057
870.0190.046
880.0130.038
890.0070.030
900.0020.023
910.0000.018
920.0000.013
930.0000.009
940.0000.006
950.0000.004
960.0000.002
970.0000.001
980.0000.001
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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