Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Probability distribution for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.1630.344
Median6.2226.652
Mean12.22414.938
75% Quartile19.34224.925
Interquartile Range18.17924.580

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
159.56874.512
251.55764.240
346.99960.204
443.56456.879
541.23154.410
639.51950.964
737.63448.529
836.17446.240
934.57643.942
1032.96742.202
1131.39740.749
1230.23439.132
1329.09337.897
1428.10636.649
1526.91035.266
1626.21934.159
1725.32532.855
1824.57531.512
1923.67430.319
2022.89829.371
2122.04628.447
2221.32727.410
2320.64426.679
2419.83525.604
2519.34524.925
2618.58524.337
2718.04923.434
2817.34222.711
2916.72721.865
3016.19120.924
3115.52820.056
3215.02519.165
3314.44318.457
3413.79217.753
3513.14616.779
3612.55315.993
3711.99515.203
3811.43914.461
3911.05013.849
4010.50513.040
4110.03212.254
429.61911.670
439.18911.179
448.72610.504
458.2619.898
467.8519.224
477.4918.619
487.0827.840
496.6127.262
506.2226.652
515.9696.115
525.6745.597
535.3895.018
545.0864.495
554.8043.998
564.5693.445
574.3103.145
584.0372.860
593.7582.571
603.5702.227
613.3661.920
623.1681.720
632.9971.548
642.8001.357
652.5871.223
662.4171.098
672.2520.991
682.1080.865
691.9610.751
701.8060.677
711.6620.585
721.5270.520
731.3900.452
741.2680.398
751.1610.344
761.0760.302
770.9790.261
780.8980.227
790.8080.199
800.7140.166
810.6450.140
820.5630.118
830.5020.097
840.4280.082
850.3810.070
860.3310.057
870.2920.046
880.2530.038
890.2060.030
900.1610.023
910.1280.018
920.0960.013
930.0680.009
940.0420.006
950.0240.004
960.0080.002
970.0000.001
980.0000.001
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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