Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River



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Probability distribution for Coalseam Creek at Laura River ( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.2410.310
Median0.9962.012
Mean4.41710.677
75% Quartile3.72412.069
Interquartile Range3.48311.759

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
150.53186.030
236.64469.914
329.81163.583
424.19358.371
520.30054.503
617.59849.111
715.47445.310
814.06641.748
912.70638.187
1011.58735.508
1110.61833.285
129.47730.835
138.71428.982
147.89227.133
157.27725.116
166.80723.531
176.31521.705
185.92719.881
195.48918.315
205.09117.112
214.79715.979
224.47714.758
234.21113.931
243.92112.769
253.72612.069
263.49411.484
273.27110.627
283.0939.976
292.9499.253
302.7948.500
312.6347.850
322.5067.228
332.3666.763
342.2306.327
352.0985.766
362.0035.345
371.9034.950
381.8064.604
391.7124.334
401.6453.999
411.5613.696
421.4963.484
431.4303.313
441.3473.089
451.2902.899
461.2242.698
471.1662.526
481.1112.314
491.0532.165
500.9962.012
510.9481.881
520.9031.757
530.8591.621
540.8201.499
550.7841.383
560.7461.252
570.7111.180
580.6821.111
590.6421.038
600.5950.949
610.5650.867
620.5370.810
630.5080.760
640.4770.702
650.4580.659
660.4340.618
670.4090.581
680.3870.536
690.3610.493
700.3320.463
710.3090.425
720.2890.396
730.2710.364
740.2540.338
750.2400.310
760.2240.287
770.2040.263
780.1880.242
790.1720.224
800.1580.201
810.1460.181
820.1280.164
830.1100.146
840.1000.132
850.0890.121
860.0790.107
870.0680.093
880.0560.084
890.0470.073
900.0400.062
910.0310.053
920.0220.044
930.0150.036
940.0080.027
950.0010.021
960.0000.016
970.0000.010
980.0000.007
990.0000.004


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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