Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River



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Probability distribution for Coalseam Creek at Laura River ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.8940.041
Median13.1330.387
Mean16.2282.931
75% Quartile21.2683.250
Interquartile Range15.3733.209

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
173.48124.223
255.75319.737
347.67517.975
442.31516.523
539.42115.445
637.03313.941
735.63912.879
834.18911.882
932.75010.882
1031.36910.127
1130.2749.499
1229.0158.802
1327.9748.273
1427.0947.742
1526.4197.158
1625.8346.696
1725.1866.160
1824.7415.620
1924.1825.151
2023.6394.789
2123.0524.446
2222.5684.074
2322.1933.821
2421.7823.465
2521.2713.250
2620.8553.071
2720.3722.809
2819.9922.611
2919.6432.392
3019.3962.165
3119.0591.971
3218.7471.787
3318.4801.651
3418.1321.526
3517.8071.365
3617.5511.247
3717.2741.138
3816.9301.043
3916.5860.970
4016.3450.881
4116.0820.802
4215.7720.747
4315.4600.703
4415.1870.646
4514.8650.599
4614.5180.550
4714.0900.508
4813.8110.457
4913.4590.422
5013.1330.387
5112.8620.357
5212.5470.329
5312.1880.298
5411.9250.272
5511.6830.247
5611.4400.219
5711.1660.204
5810.9060.190
5910.6330.175
6010.3730.157
6110.0270.141
629.6960.130
639.4320.120
649.1470.110
658.8310.102
668.5750.094
678.2540.087
687.9430.079
697.6190.072
707.3380.067
717.0530.060
726.7640.055
736.4350.050
746.1490.046
755.8940.041
765.6260.038
775.3610.034
785.0750.031
794.7710.028
804.5040.025
814.2560.022
824.0180.019
833.7560.017
843.5140.015
853.2390.013
862.9910.011
872.7740.010
882.5310.009
892.3310.007
902.1070.006
911.8850.005
921.6370.004
931.3940.003
941.1620.002
950.9670.002
960.7950.001
970.6090.001
980.4420.000
990.2410.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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