Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2012) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug0.1520.2470.0000.1240.906
Aug-Sep0.2280.2490.0000.1491.410
Aug-Oct0.3480.2490.0000.1621.736

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.7090.954
203.3500.299
302.4500.122
401.8040.052
501.2790.023
600.8740.009
700.5590.003
800.3240.001
900.1360.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.6122.983
27.5242.643
36.7362.299
46.1991.997
55.8841.736
65.6271.571
75.3471.394
85.0481.231
94.8611.094
104.7090.954
114.5330.841
124.3510.746
134.1890.645
144.0370.573
153.9010.507
163.7610.451
173.6590.412
183.5270.364
193.4310.338
203.3500.299
213.2160.276
223.1240.258
233.0250.236
242.9680.215
252.8950.195
262.7950.176
272.6770.161
282.6010.145
292.5250.132
302.4500.122
312.3650.111
322.3020.100
332.2330.091
342.1610.083
352.0980.076
362.0370.071
371.9660.065
381.9060.059
391.8510.055
401.8040.052
411.7370.048
421.6850.044
431.6430.041
441.5800.037
451.5250.034
461.4720.031
471.4230.029
481.3580.026
491.3190.025
501.2790.023
511.2360.021
521.2010.019
531.1670.017
541.1270.015
551.0770.014
561.0370.013
570.9850.012
580.9520.011
590.9170.010
600.8740.009
610.8370.008
620.8080.007
630.7750.007
640.7400.006
650.7050.006
660.6740.005
670.6460.005
680.6200.004
690.5900.004
700.5590.003
710.5320.003
720.5050.003
730.4840.002
740.4590.002
750.4350.002
760.4110.002
770.3870.001
780.3670.001
790.3450.001
800.3240.001
810.3000.001
820.2800.000
830.2590.000
840.2400.000
850.2210.000
860.2070.000
870.1890.000
880.1720.000
890.1520.000
900.1360.000
910.1190.000
920.1020.000
930.0900.000
940.0790.000
950.0650.000
960.0530.000
970.0390.000
980.0280.000
990.0150.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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