Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1984) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Apr6.9612.71146.6040.0029.86457.384
Apr-May8.1633.05348.6610.00210.73867.240
Apr-Jun9.0923.21149.6870.00211.21368.223

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.85135.508
2016.19517.112
309.5958.500
405.8133.999
503.7002.012
602.2740.949
701.3450.463
800.7120.201
900.2650.062

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
186.28086.030
269.67869.914
360.73263.583
452.51658.371
545.27454.503
641.27249.111
738.82345.310
835.39841.748
933.04038.187
1030.85135.508
1128.77133.285
1227.18230.835
1325.53928.982
1424.01727.133
1522.38225.116
1620.99123.531
1719.44821.705
1818.33919.881
1917.24218.315
2016.19517.112
2115.25315.979
2214.58414.758
2313.97513.931
2413.22512.769
2512.52812.069
2611.86411.484
2711.28410.627
2810.6549.976
2910.1189.253
309.5958.500
319.1497.850
328.7377.228
338.2756.763
347.8616.327
357.4915.766
367.1125.345
376.7494.950
386.3824.604
396.0984.334
405.8133.999
415.5003.696
425.2653.484
435.0473.313
444.8193.089
454.6502.899
464.4152.698
474.1802.526
484.0462.314
493.8812.165
503.7002.012
513.5381.881
523.3731.757
533.2431.621
543.0541.499
552.9091.383
562.7351.252
572.6181.180
582.4831.111
592.3831.038
602.2740.949
612.1480.867
622.0380.810
631.9550.760
641.8750.702
651.7480.659
661.6590.618
671.5760.581
681.5080.536
691.4330.493
701.3450.463
711.2760.425
721.2080.396
731.1560.364
741.0950.338
751.0220.310
760.9600.287
770.8930.263
780.8270.242
790.7670.224
800.7120.201
810.6540.181
820.6010.164
830.5460.146
840.4980.132
850.4590.121
860.4160.107
870.3730.093
880.3370.084
890.2980.073
900.2650.062
910.2290.053
920.1930.044
930.1560.036
940.1270.027
950.0980.021
960.0680.016
970.0370.010
980.0170.007
990.0000.004


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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