Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1984) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1979) (GL)
Jun0.9290.1571.0260.0000.4752.559
Jun-Jul1.1680.1831.7020.0000.7463.608
Jun-Aug1.3170.1831.9490.0000.8454.199

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.5353.660
203.2391.539
302.3900.552
401.7290.180
501.1970.066
600.7900.021
700.5060.007
800.2900.002
900.1210.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.4047.622
27.0617.001
36.3976.491
46.0065.903
55.6195.455
65.3444.996
75.1014.554
84.8864.218
94.6793.960
104.5353.660
114.3763.400
124.2533.181
134.1072.918
143.9572.694
153.7642.464
163.6592.208
173.5492.028
183.4311.842
193.3411.680
203.2391.539
213.1561.409
223.0761.247
232.9841.150
242.8861.068
252.8000.976
262.7300.874
272.6340.786
282.5540.704
292.4730.626
302.3900.552
312.3240.490
322.2540.445
332.1700.396
342.1200.350
352.0400.311
361.9740.275
371.9090.248
381.8580.226
391.7910.201
401.7290.180
411.6850.164
421.6360.152
431.5790.137
441.5290.124
451.4750.112
461.4180.101
471.3650.089
481.3160.081
491.2550.072
501.1970.066
511.1470.059
521.1000.053
531.0640.046
541.0230.041
550.9870.036
560.9440.032
570.8890.030
580.8610.027
590.8270.024
600.7900.021
610.7550.019
620.7260.017
630.6950.015
640.6660.014
650.6330.012
660.6110.011
670.5780.010
680.5540.009
690.5320.008
700.5060.007
710.4820.006
720.4620.006
730.4340.005
740.4100.005
750.3900.004
760.3660.004
770.3440.003
780.3240.003
790.3080.002
800.2900.002
810.2700.002
820.2520.001
830.2330.001
840.2160.001
850.1990.001
860.1820.001
870.1650.001
880.1510.001
890.1360.000
900.1210.000
910.1090.000
920.0970.000
930.0840.000
940.0700.000
950.0560.000
960.0440.000
970.0330.000
980.0220.000
990.0130.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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