Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2012) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2000) (GL)
Sep0.0780.0000.0020.0000.0250.001
Sep-Oct0.2030.0000.0020.0000.0370.001
Sep-Nov1.2040.00059.8950.0000.7148.994

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.8604.567
202.2862.642
301.2901.476
400.7950.678
500.4780.306
600.2790.123
700.1410.049
800.0530.014
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.6829.462
28.4907.906
37.1187.294
46.1536.790
55.5796.416
65.0635.894
74.6765.525
84.3855.178
94.0954.830
103.8604.567
113.6184.347
123.4784.103
133.2303.916
143.0643.728
152.8983.520
162.7793.354
172.6483.159
182.5302.959
192.4152.782
202.2862.642
212.1502.507
222.0162.357
231.9012.252
241.8052.100
251.6892.005
261.5981.924
271.5011.801
281.4351.705
291.3611.595
301.2901.476
311.2441.370
321.1951.265
331.1331.185
341.0801.108
351.0201.007
360.9700.931
370.9310.857
380.8780.793
390.8270.742
400.7950.678
410.7570.621
420.7170.580
430.6830.548
440.6470.506
450.6180.470
460.5920.432
470.5630.400
480.5300.361
490.4970.333
500.4780.306
510.4530.282
520.4330.260
530.4100.236
540.3920.215
550.3710.195
560.3520.172
570.3300.160
580.3170.149
590.2980.137
600.2790.123
610.2610.109
620.2460.101
630.2330.093
640.2140.084
650.2010.078
660.1860.071
670.1740.066
680.1640.059
690.1520.053
700.1410.049
710.1290.044
720.1180.040
730.1090.035
740.0980.032
750.0880.028
760.0800.025
770.0730.022
780.0680.019
790.0610.017
800.0530.014
810.0470.012
820.0400.010
830.0340.008
840.0280.006
850.0220.005
860.0160.004
870.0110.002
880.0060.001
890.0020.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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