Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1979) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1978) (GL)
Nov1.0010.00059.8930.1780.6760.000
Nov-Dec14.2570.00063.9520.2688.2323.154
Nov-Jan100.701301.01764.6202.054125.485479.181

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10252.926268.207
20181.357163.514
30131.291108.393
4095.52070.207
5066.44846.888
6044.16529.928
7028.87719.405
8015.14911.708
905.8305.748

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1436.464564.397
2388.585468.986
3357.580431.617
4335.114400.929
5313.989378.230
6298.883346.715
7286.941324.613
8275.381304.012
9263.872283.529
10252.926268.207
11242.713255.547
12235.427241.643
13227.815231.156
14220.136220.711
15212.297209.319
16206.337200.355
17199.118189.992
18193.361179.574
19187.279170.537
20181.357163.514
21174.688156.821
22170.106149.486
23165.170144.435
24160.413137.194
25155.452132.735
26150.388128.946
27145.117123.272
28139.965118.852
29135.456113.812
30131.291108.393
31126.828103.556
32122.66098.764
33118.91395.070
34115.84491.506
35112.89286.743
36109.85183.044
37106.20979.448
38102.30876.182
3999.37173.563
4095.52070.207
4192.15967.057
4288.85364.782
4386.06862.905
4482.26060.385
4579.11058.176
4675.59455.768
4773.61053.641
4871.23550.946
4969.05148.968
5066.44846.888
5164.11845.053
5261.89043.265
5359.43541.234
5457.25139.354
5554.84537.506
5652.61335.345
5750.27434.109
5847.76332.890
5945.89231.586
6044.16529.928
6142.62228.333
6241.18027.205
6339.55226.180
6437.93324.957
6536.33824.031
6634.94723.109
6733.50822.269
6831.92221.204
6930.23620.146
7028.87719.405
7127.14918.421
7225.58617.657
7324.01316.786
7422.59716.031
7521.27615.219
7619.93414.517
7718.69413.774
7817.64113.109
7916.22512.491
8015.14911.708
8114.29010.999
8213.40810.349
8312.1429.640
8410.9769.067
8510.2748.588
869.3797.965
878.1757.350
887.2916.875
896.5816.328
905.8305.748
915.2415.234
924.5104.660
933.6704.086
943.0113.438
952.1813.008
961.4592.547
970.7751.941
980.0001.480
990.0001.014


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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