Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1978) (GL)
Dec13.2560.0004.0595.3587.5553.154
Dec-Jan99.700301.0174.7278.590124.809479.181
Dec-Feb222.569322.962159.96113.100284.567691.479

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10470.720
20345.374
30267.141
40200.173
50149.597
60105.564
7074.061
8048.347
9026.231

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1794.704
2691.362
3650.793
4617.400
5592.631
6558.100
7533.745
8510.899
9488.002
10470.720
11456.316
12440.340
13428.161
14415.901
15402.358
16391.556
17378.884
18365.912
19354.444
20345.374
21336.586
22326.775
23319.898
24309.852
25303.545
26298.108
27289.819
28283.232
29275.572
30267.141
31259.432
32251.609
33245.441
34239.370
35231.059
36224.436
37217.849
38211.730
39206.724
40200.173
41193.875
42189.236
43185.345
44180.032
45175.285
46170.011
47165.263
48159.124
49154.523
50149.597
51145.171
52140.787
53135.718
54130.935
55126.149
56120.440
57117.118
58113.800
59110.205
60105.564
61101.021
6297.762
6394.764
6491.142
6588.369
6685.578
6783.010
6879.718
6976.403
7074.061
7170.915
7268.444
7365.601
7463.110
7560.405
7658.039
7755.513
7853.230
7951.088
8048.347
8145.838
8243.512
8340.943
8438.849
8537.076
8634.752
8732.430
8830.615
8928.500
9026.231
9124.190
9221.874
9319.519
9416.807
9514.968
9612.958
9710.234
988.086
995.822


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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