Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1988) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Feb122.86921.945155.23312.507159.758310.779
Feb-Mar220.810112.877168.02116.916257.105750.578
Feb-Apr228.828159.480326.80117.820271.628763.504

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10433.814511.078
20338.430386.287
30266.170306.144
40206.096234.548
50156.871177.519
60112.045125.299
7076.19986.718
8046.18855.064
9018.52228.447

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1698.239828.624
2628.278727.553
3585.272687.851
4554.715655.152
5521.738630.883
6500.320597.020
7481.221573.109
8462.765550.654
9449.357528.116
10433.814511.078
11421.038496.858
12409.040481.058
13397.789468.994
14386.904456.829
15376.969443.363
16367.985432.599
17359.671419.942
18351.935406.948
19345.731395.425
20338.430386.287
21329.117377.408
22322.856367.465
23315.770360.475
24306.496350.231
25300.923343.777
26293.699338.200
27284.894329.670
28279.237322.866
29272.748314.924
30266.170306.144
31260.466298.077
32254.160289.851
33247.779283.334
34241.804276.893
35236.257268.028
36230.515260.922
37224.878253.817
38216.926247.181
39211.819241.725
40206.096234.548
41200.252227.606
42194.681222.465
43189.883218.136
44185.480212.197
45181.436206.862
46176.892200.903
47171.577195.512
48166.675188.497
49161.398183.209
50156.871177.519
51151.920172.380
52147.201167.264
53142.709161.320
54138.232155.680
55133.248150.008
56128.712143.205
57124.299139.228
58120.090135.243
59116.521130.912
60112.045125.299
61107.715119.783
62104.021115.815
63100.018112.155
6496.101107.724
6593.746104.326
6690.120100.899
6786.11397.742
6882.84093.691
6979.44689.607
7076.19986.718
7173.08782.839
7270.26579.790
7367.48876.282
7464.80673.210
7561.62469.876
7657.52066.962
7754.70763.854
7851.96961.049
7949.43958.421
8046.18855.064
8142.07052.000
8239.11849.166
8336.88546.045
8434.03043.510
8531.07541.371
8628.58038.576
8726.13035.796
8823.40433.633
8921.13931.124
9018.52228.447
9116.22426.055
9214.02323.360
9312.09720.643
9410.02917.548
957.92515.472
965.55413.228
973.49710.235
981.0537.924
990.0005.544


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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