Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1984) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1979) (GL)
Jun0.9311.0262.8840.0000.5772.559
Jun-Jul1.1811.7025.8050.0000.9163.608
Jun-Aug1.3341.9498.0220.0001.0404.199

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.4043.660
205.0251.539
304.1350.552
403.3250.180
502.6280.066
601.9670.021
701.3810.007
800.8570.002
900.3730.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.8627.622
29.1577.001
38.4036.491
47.9375.903
57.6305.455
67.2774.996
77.0404.554
86.7664.218
96.5643.960
106.4043.660
116.2393.400
126.0753.181
135.9212.918
145.7802.694
155.6452.464
165.5032.208
175.3452.028
185.2451.842
195.1181.680
205.0251.539
214.8961.409
224.7991.247
234.7051.150
244.5901.068
254.5070.976
264.4150.874
274.3350.786
284.2750.704
294.2050.626
304.1350.552
314.0160.490
323.9400.445
333.8660.396
343.7840.350
353.7220.311
363.6440.275
373.5620.248
383.4760.226
393.4090.201
403.3250.180
413.2500.164
423.2000.152
433.1410.137
443.0760.124
453.0050.112
462.9180.101
472.8570.089
482.7880.081
492.7110.072
502.6280.066
512.5510.059
522.4750.053
532.4090.046
542.3410.041
552.2720.036
562.2200.032
572.1480.030
582.0910.027
592.0280.024
601.9670.021
611.9140.019
621.8570.017
631.7990.015
641.7460.014
651.6820.012
661.6040.011
671.5410.010
681.4940.009
691.4400.008
701.3810.007
711.3140.006
721.2590.006
731.2060.005
741.1610.005
751.1190.004
761.0720.004
771.0170.003
780.9610.003
790.9130.002
800.8570.002
810.8030.002
820.7430.001
830.6970.001
840.6430.001
850.6010.001
860.5520.001
870.5090.001
880.4670.001
890.4180.000
900.3730.000
910.3340.000
920.2980.000
930.2530.000
940.2190.000
950.1760.000
960.1340.000
970.1000.000
980.0670.000
990.0380.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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