Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River


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Product list for Coalseam Creek at Laura River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Coalseam Creek at Laura River ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1987) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan79.29792.798218.9341.10767.961387.845
Jan-Feb207.879240.791315.70211.331254.725698.624
Jan-Mar300.964295.149623.17225.516318.3821138.424

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10686.960
20517.768
30409.898
40314.499
50239.349
60171.028
70120.447
8078.383
9042.043

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11119.349
2981.637
3927.552
4883.016
5849.967
6803.866
7771.323
8740.772
9710.121
10686.960
11667.636
12646.177
13629.798
14613.290
15595.027
16580.437
17563.291
18545.703
19530.118
20517.768
21505.775
22492.357
23482.930
24469.126
25460.437
26452.933
27441.465
28432.326
29421.668
30409.898
31399.096
32388.094
33379.387
34370.790
35358.972
36349.512
37340.063
38331.250
39324.011
40314.499
41305.312
42298.515
43292.796
44284.957
45277.924
46270.075
47262.980
48253.759
49246.816
50239.349
51232.611
52225.909
53218.125
54210.745
55203.326
56194.433
57189.234
58184.026
59178.365
60171.028
61163.816
62158.625
63153.835
64148.034
65143.580
66139.087
67134.944
68129.622
69124.251
70120.447
71115.331
72111.305
73106.665
74102.595
7598.169
7694.293
7790.152
7886.405
7982.887
8078.383
8174.258
8270.433
8366.208
8462.764
8559.850
8656.029
8752.213
8849.232
8945.763
9042.043
9138.700
9234.916
9331.074
9426.661
9523.676
9620.425
9716.037
9812.597
998.995


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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