Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.07839.330
2013.12228.741
309.55621.810
406.88215.451
505.06310.316
603.7095.886
702.6363.165
801.6661.476
900.7810.496

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
150.00366.023
241.05157.537
335.68654.202
431.23151.454
528.38849.415
626.58946.568
725.16344.556
823.62742.665
922.28640.767
1021.07839.330
1120.14438.129
1219.22536.795
1317.95935.774
1417.03634.744
1516.26433.603
1615.56432.689
1714.83831.613
1814.18130.506
1913.62429.522
2013.12228.741
2112.66227.980
2212.31727.126
2311.93826.525
2411.56725.642
2511.16625.084
2610.78924.602
2710.43823.862
2810.15023.270
299.83722.578
309.55621.810
319.26821.102
328.88220.378
338.59919.803
348.39419.233
358.09518.447
367.81017.814
377.51817.179
387.29016.585
397.08016.096
406.88215.451
416.69314.825
426.48114.362
436.30713.971
446.10613.434
455.90712.953
465.70112.415
475.53911.929
485.35711.298
495.23210.824
505.06310.316
514.9019.859
524.7269.408
534.5768.887
544.4448.398
554.3107.912
564.1847.339
574.0667.008
583.9496.681
593.8346.331
603.7095.886
613.5885.460
623.4725.160
633.3464.888
643.2314.567
653.1214.327
663.0114.089
672.8983.875
682.8123.607
692.7203.345
702.6363.165
712.5222.929
722.4202.749
732.3012.548
742.1972.378
752.1102.199
762.0282.047
771.9161.890
781.8371.753
791.7651.629
801.6661.476
811.5921.341
821.5291.222
831.4331.096
841.3330.998
851.2150.918
861.1180.818
871.0330.723
880.9490.653
890.8590.575
900.7810.496
910.7150.429
920.6250.359
930.5340.293
940.4520.225
950.3670.183
960.3070.142
970.2060.093
980.1030.062
990.0000.034


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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