Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1041.69475.692
2025.96437.345
3018.66623.144
4013.90314.725
5010.3989.882
607.9576.404
705.8994.248
804.0162.632
902.3511.343

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1137.717299.697
2105.879212.280
383.853180.626
470.491156.689
563.257139.588
658.012118.726
752.777105.266
848.23293.587
944.79383.003
1041.69475.692
1138.75570.030
1236.90164.204
1334.47560.014
1432.89855.999
1531.63751.881
1630.46248.825
1729.45245.373
1827.96742.077
1927.15439.368
2025.96437.345
2125.06135.463
2224.32333.384
2323.46332.101
2422.66730.192
2522.01629.071
2621.29128.123
2720.70026.688
2820.01825.596
2919.29324.431
3018.66623.144
3118.21622.041
3217.62420.923
3317.16820.094
3416.62919.337
3516.01818.264
3615.59017.476
3715.13016.692
3814.80516.002
3914.35715.436
4013.90314.725
4113.45514.058
4213.15513.588
4312.70113.188
4412.26912.668
4511.91512.212
4611.53311.704
4711.25211.277
4811.01010.721
4910.71210.306
5010.3989.882
5110.1119.506
529.8409.147
539.6258.719
549.3828.348
559.1127.949
568.8817.523
578.7047.270
588.4267.016
598.1726.754
607.9576.404
617.7166.085
627.5075.856
637.3495.643
647.0935.397
656.8355.206
666.6405.016
676.4504.842
686.2454.622
696.0994.402
705.8994.248
715.6984.044
725.5033.884
735.2843.702
745.0593.544
754.8843.374
764.7123.226
774.5523.069
784.3712.929
794.1882.798
804.0162.632
813.8582.481
823.6942.342
833.5232.189
843.3442.066
853.1531.963
862.9701.828
872.8381.694
882.6751.590
892.5201.471
902.3511.343
912.1821.229
921.9781.101
931.8040.972
941.5970.826
951.4270.728
961.2130.622
970.9740.481
980.7260.372
990.3300.261


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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