Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10114.99773.930
2075.22937.243
3052.88023.411
4038.23915.095
5027.69710.250
6019.7526.728
7013.7614.517
808.8802.838
904.7491.477

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1263.726285.176
2219.363202.575
3194.749172.773
4174.253150.264
5157.596134.188
6145.241114.565
7134.180101.888
8126.43390.868
9119.84780.860
10114.99773.930
11109.84268.553
12105.92963.009
13100.23559.013
1495.10255.178
1590.18551.236
1687.98948.305
1784.96844.988
1881.45841.813
1978.04539.199
2075.22937.243
2172.34735.420
2269.73133.403
2367.50732.158
2465.09730.300
2562.58029.208
2660.69828.284
2759.01226.882
2856.99925.814
2955.19724.674
3052.88023.411
3151.17022.328
3249.60721.228
3347.87120.411
3446.22719.665
3544.74518.604
3643.49617.825
3742.28117.049
3840.56916.364
3939.21715.802
4038.23915.095
4137.09214.431
4235.96313.963
4334.89313.563
4433.52513.044
4532.54112.589
4631.17912.080
4730.37911.652
4829.31211.094
4928.41110.677
5027.69710.250
5126.5529.872
5225.4879.510
5324.7269.077
5423.9738.702
5522.9708.298
5622.1467.867
5721.5297.609
5820.8637.351
5920.4227.084
6019.7526.728
6119.0906.402
6218.4176.168
6317.6305.950
6417.0615.698
6516.4865.503
6615.9305.307
6715.4265.129
6814.8284.902
6914.3334.676
7013.7614.517
7113.1224.306
7212.5944.141
7312.0943.952
7411.5473.788
7511.1393.612
7610.4963.458
779.9433.295
789.5913.148
799.2613.012
808.8802.838
818.3072.679
827.8232.534
837.3962.374
847.0042.244
856.6572.135
866.1971.992
875.8831.851
885.4801.740
895.1251.613
904.7491.477
914.2371.355
923.8121.218
933.4171.080
943.0190.922
952.5360.815
962.2260.700
971.7210.545
981.2710.425
990.7110.301


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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