Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.71538.880
2021.74426.796
3016.93419.472
4013.57113.553
5010.9619.441
608.7556.189
706.6724.070
804.8642.480
902.9741.229

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
155.70170.399
246.94260.342
342.41956.393
439.78253.143
537.74550.733
635.54247.373
733.93545.004
832.83942.783
931.71040.558
1030.71538.880
1129.48837.482
1228.31035.934
1327.29434.755
1426.39033.569
1525.60232.262
1624.69131.221
1723.96230.002
1823.37528.758
1922.56427.661
2021.74426.796
2121.28125.960
2220.75925.030
2320.19024.380
2419.66023.434
2519.18322.843
2618.71522.334
2718.23121.563
2817.80220.952
2917.32120.246
3016.93419.472
3116.56118.770
3216.11418.062
3315.83817.507
3415.46016.965
3515.17416.228
3614.87415.645
3714.57915.071
3814.25014.541
3913.82714.111
4013.57113.553
4113.25913.022
4212.97012.633
4312.73512.310
4412.43411.872
4512.09311.484
4611.87811.056
4711.64110.675
4811.40010.187
4911.1889.825
5010.9619.441
5110.7169.100
5210.4118.765
5310.2128.381
5410.0168.023
559.8267.669
569.5877.251
579.3217.010
589.1356.772
598.9466.516
608.7556.189
618.5545.872
628.3425.647
638.1525.442
647.9435.197
657.7335.010
667.4684.824
677.2194.654
687.0494.437
696.8174.221
706.6724.070
716.4823.869
726.2883.712
736.0723.532
745.8873.377
755.6943.209
765.4903.064
775.3092.910
785.2002.772
795.0332.643
804.8642.480
814.7222.332
824.5002.196
834.3612.048
844.1661.928
853.9761.827
863.7841.696
873.5791.567
883.4101.467
893.1451.351
902.9741.229
912.7871.120
922.5790.999
932.3860.877
942.1900.739
951.9360.648
961.7130.549
971.4490.420
981.1350.321
990.7340.221


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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