Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill


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Product list for Coxs River at Island Hill



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Exceedance probability for Coxs River at Island Hill ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.209
2026.905
3016.592
4010.482
506.985
604.491
702.957
801.815
900.915

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1190.935
2140.839
3121.996
4107.354
596.636
683.222
774.348
866.501
959.270
1054.209
1150.254
1246.153
1343.185
1440.327
1537.383
1635.191
1732.707
1830.329
1928.370
2026.905
2125.541
2224.032
2323.101
2421.715
2520.900
2620.211
2719.168
2818.374
2917.528
3016.592
3115.790
3214.978
3314.376
3413.826
3513.047
3612.476
3711.907
3811.407
3910.997
4010.482
419.999
429.659
439.370
448.995
458.665
468.299
477.991
487.590
497.291
506.985
516.715
526.457
536.149
545.883
555.597
565.292
575.110
584.929
594.741
604.491
614.263
624.100
633.948
643.773
653.637
663.502
673.378
683.222
693.066
702.957
712.812
722.699
732.570
742.458
752.338
762.234
772.123
782.024
791.932
801.815
811.709
821.612
831.505
841.419
851.346
861.252
871.159
881.087
891.003
900.915
910.836
920.747
930.658
940.557
950.490
960.418
970.321
980.248
990.172


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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